In mid-2008, crude oil shocked energy markets as it reached an all-time high of $147/barrel (Bbl.) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. (See Figure 0 below.) Within four months, prices had sunk to $50 per barrel. Then, again in 2014, prices hit a high of about $100/Bbl in June only to fall to under $50/Bbl by December. In April 2020, crude oil futures price dropped to about - $40/bbl for the first time in history. How could these happen, and what were the factors causing these levels of price volatility? We will be exploring these questions in Lesson 2.
At the successful completion of this lesson, students should be able to:
This lesson will take us one week to complete. The following items will be due Sunday at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time.
If you have any questions, please post them to our General Course Questions discussion forum (not email), located under Modules in Canvas. The TA and I will check that discussion forum daily to respond. While you are there, feel free to post your own responses if you, too, are able to help out a classmate.
Before we begin our discussion of the logistics and value chain for natural gas and crude oil, we need to have at least a cursory understanding of the “upstream” processes for the exploration, drilling, fracturing, and production of these fossil fuels. The following readings and video support this learning.
Go to the EIA website and read the following sections from “Nonrenewable Sources [2]”:
Please take some time to review the optional materials. They will give you context for the rest of the lesson.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
PRESENTER: What drives our cars, buses and planes? Powers our electricity and allows us to cook our food and heat our water? Most of today's energy needs are met by fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas.
These unique high-energy fuels are non-renewable resources that took millions of years to form. About two billion years ago, marine organisms like algae and microscopic animals and plants died and settled on the ocean floor.
Beneath other sediments in the ocean, and in the absence of oxygen, these fossils changed into a substance called kerogen. Under heat and pressure, kerogen gradually changes into oil, or gas. The whole process usually takes at least a million years.
At the molecular level, oil and gas are hydrocarbons made up of hydrogen and carbon atoms. The constant pressure and movement of the Earth's crust squeezes oil and gas through the pores or spaces within rocks. Some oil and gas reaches the Earth's surface and seeps out naturally into land or water. Often it is trapped beneath the surface by impermeable layers or rock structures like faults and folds.
Within the crust, oil or gas deposits build up and form reservoirs. Reservoirs are like vast sponges filled with oil and gas. They can be as large as a city.
To find oil and gas deposits, geologists use a number of different survey techniques, including seismic surveys, gravitational surveys, and geological mapping. Seismic surveys use reflected sound waves to produce a 3-D view of the Earth's interior.
New technologies such as four-dimensional projections and sophisticated graphic renderings of rock structures are improving the way we find conventional oil and gas deposits. Energy resources that are currently difficult or expensive to extract are called unconventional oil and gas.
In a world with limited energy resources, people are looking at more efficient ways of tapping into unconventional oil and gas or an alternative and renewable sources of energy from biofuels or the sun. What do you think will be the energy sources of the future?
[MACHINERY OPERATING]
PRESENTER: When your job is drilling for oil, you lead a nomadic kind of existence. You're rarely in one place for long. And every time you move to a new location, you take your drilling rig with you. 800 tons of machinery, and a few thousand horsepower to drive it. Setting it all up can take anything from a few days to a couple of weeks.
The choice of site for drilling an exploration well isn't ours. It's made by the geologist and geophysicist from their knowledge of the rocks that lie below, 10,000 feet or more. A classic choice would be over a dome-shaped fold in the rock layers, revealed by seismic survey.
But in this business, that choice is a gamble. The chance you're counting on is that oil and gas, formed somewhere in the vicinity millions of years ago, could have migrated into the dome through layers of permeable rock and have accumulated there, hemmed in by an impermeable layer above. Once there, they would have separated-- the gas on top of the oil, with groundwater round the flanks, all of them at high pressure. That's what we hope has happened. But it could take eight weeks or more to prove it.
We start with a relatively large bit to drill through the soft surface layers, down to 1,000 feet or so. When your target is over 10,000 feet down, you don't just sink a deep hole. You build it carefully, stage by stage.
[CRANE OPERATING]
The drill is driven from the surface, turned by a rotary table on the platform, The drill spring suspended from the derrick. Down below, the teeth of the drilling bit break the rock into fragments. They'd soon choke the hole unless we had a way of flushing them out. What we use is a special drilling fluid, pumped down the drill pipe to cool the bit and carry the cuttings away back to the surface.
The mud, as we call it, is channeled out over fine mesh screens-- the shakers-- to remove the coarse cuttings, and then passed through separators and settling pits to get rid of the finer material before it's recycled back down the hole. As long as the drill is turning, the mud must be kept circulating. But every 30 feet, drilling has to stop to add another section of pipe.
[WORKER YELLING]
[WORKER YELLING]
[WORKER YELLING]
It's a tough job, and it calls for some slick coordination from the floor group. But they all get plenty of practice. On an average well, they'll add pipe over 300 times before they reach the bottom of the hole.
Everything's done to a schedule, supervised by the tool pusher. Nowadays, he doesn't push anything but the drilling program. He's responsible, among other things, for ordering supplies of materials as they're needed, and making sure they arrive on time.
This steel casing, for instance, will be run into the hole when the drill has reached 1,000 feet. It's essential to stabilize the well at this stage to prevent the softer rocks found at shallow depths from caving in. This will be the next job coming up in his program, within the next few hours.
The casing, like drill pipe, is assembled section by section. And each of them weighs a ton or so. These centralizers are fitted at regular intervals to keep the casing central in the hole as it goes down. The casing is lowered in until it reaches a point just above the bottom of the hole. The next job is to cement it home.
The cement is a wet slurry, pumped down the inside of the casing under pressure. Downhole, it flows through the end of the casing and is circulated around the outside and back to the surface, displacing the drilling mud ahead of it. The cement is followed by drilling mud to the bottom of the casing. The pumps are stopped, and the cement is given time to set.
Now we can cap the top of the casing with a set of safety valves, known for obvious reasons as the blowout preventers. If further drilling were to encounter extremely high pressure gas, oil, or water, we could have a problem. To contain it, we need a means of sealing off the hole of the surface. It's done by hydraulic rams that close off the gap between the drill string and the inside walls of the casing.
As we go deeper, heavier wellhead equipment will be installed to control the higher pressures. Once the blowout preventers are fitted, drilling can continue safely to greater depths.
But what if we were drilling not on land, but way out at sea? Our rig might be on a floating platform, anchored 500 feet or more above the drill hole. But we'd still have to follow the same procedures. On a marine well, blowout preventers are every bit as vital, but they have to be put by remote control, sent down on guide wires and locked onto the casing under the watchful eye of a television camera.
[WATER BUBBLING]
On top goes a marine riser, a conductor tube to connect the rig directly to the blowout preventers and the drill hole down below. This gives us the closed system we need for running pipe and circulating mud, just as if we were working on land.
As drilling goes on, the mud return shows the succession of different rock layers we're passing through. Some of them could contaminate the mud and prevent it from functioning properly, so we need to keep a constant check on its composition. The mud must also be maintained at a given viscosity and density. We don't want it altered too much by the rocks we're drilling through.
Frequent checks are also made for any changes in the chemical composition. If we were to hit a layer of salt, for instance, we could be in deep trouble. The mud would cease to do its job, causing the hole to collapse and prevent drilling. We might have to replace the mud with a new supply of an entirely different composition to neutralize the salt.
Up on the platform, an equally close eye is kept on the performance of the drill bit. Cutting through hard rock, its life is usually less than 12 hours. Loss of cutting power occurs when the bit becomes dull, and it makes a distinctive noise. Now it's time to pull the whole string, 90 feet at a time, and stack it in the derrick.
[CRANE OPERATING]
[WORKER CHATTER]
[CRANE OPERATING]
We can easily have 100 strands of pipe in the rack before we reach the bit. Maybe four hours to recover it, another four to run the new one in again. Changing a bit is time consuming, but part of the normal program.
But drilling can sometimes encounter problems that are unpredictable. Conditions downhole might suddenly change and affect the consistency of the mud. If it got too thick, it could bind the drill pipe and stop further drilling. If it happens, you just pull out what you can. Then you go fishing, and with luck, you make contact.
But if the hole itself collapses, you abandon the jammed-in section, and recover the rest by breaking the pipe. You can't drill back down through the blockage. You have to bypass it, using special deviation equipment, offsetting a new hole at a pre-determined angle.
Mechanical troubles don't happen all that often. But on every well, you have to be prepared for hazards of another kind that may lie buried in the rocks below. A sudden increase in mud flow from the well. Stop drilling, and close the blowout preventers. Everything's shut down. The pressures are measured, and the pumps are restarted slowly while the cause cause of the flow increase is identified.
We've encountered high-pressure gas trapped in a shallow sandstone. It's flowing into the well and forcing out the mud. Before we can drill on, we have to contain the formation pressure by pumping down a heavier mud. This is usually kept in the storage tanks, ready for just such an emergency.
At 3,500 feet below, the gas is flowing into the hole. But as the new, heavier mud begins to circulate, the pressure is gradually overcome, and the flow stops. As the pressure returns to normal, the emergency is over. With the mud weight increased, We can now drill the rest of the gas zone. Then the hole can be lined with steel casing. Then with a smaller bit, on towards the target, still a long way to go.
As the drill bites through the cap rock and approaches the target zone, its progress is monitored foot by foot. Inspection of the cuttings will give us the first indication of what really lies below the cap rock, whether or not the choice of drill site was correct. It's sandstone all right, and it could contain oil.
Under the microscope, the sample certainly looks promising. Coarse-grained sand, with a definite dark stain. If it's oil, it will glow yellow under ultraviolet light. It's there all right, but so far only a trace. Not until we've drilled all the way through the formation can we begin to assess its significance.
To find out more about what's down there, we run a special instrument probe. The probe contains devices which measure certain electrical, acoustical, and radioactive properties of the different rock layers and transmits them back to the surface, where they are recorded. As it passes back up through the formations, the nature of the rocks penetrated by the drill, and how much oil and gas they contain, can be determined by the recorded measurements.
Shale. Porous sandstone saturated with oil. Even more porous here. Limestone, nothing much in this case. Then the gas layer. And finally, the impermeable shale of the cap rock.
We know there's oil and gas down there. But there's a lot to do yet before we've any idea of how much can be produced. It certainly looks promising-- encouraging enough to justify a flow test. The hole has been cased right down to the bottom and cemented in. A flow tube is now run into the oil zone.
To get at the oil, we have to perforate both the casing and the cement. We do it by firing a string of specially designed charges. The oil begins to flow as the pressure in the well is reduced. The flare-off of gas that comes up with the oil signals a successful test. To get this far has cost anywhere from $600,000 on land to $4 million offshore, yet all we've managed to assess is the potential of the area immediately around a single drill hole.
What interests us now is the rest of the structure. To find out the full extent of the oil reservoir, we have to drill more wells. The first out-step has found water-bearing sands, and we can now reduce the profile of the reservoir in this direction. Next we drill a third well, in line with the other two. This again finds water-bearing sands, and completes the profile-- the shape of the structure, and the position of the oil, gas, and water contacts.
But the profile is still only a narrow band of information in one direction across the structure. To round out the picture, we now need to drill further out-step wells at right angles to the first three. Even with a classic dome-shaped structure, out-stepping can have its disappointments. Nothing but water, and much lower down than expected. The rocks have slipped along a fault line, blocking off the reservoir. This is what's called a dry hole. But its information was vitally important.
We've now probed the limits of the structure, and at last we have a three-dimensional impression of the reservoir. We can now begin to plan its further development. To bring the oil field into full production, further wells will be needed. These are drilled into the oil-bearing zone beyond the edge of the gas, so we get the maximum assistance from both gas and water pressures in driving the oil to the surface.
As more and more oil is withdrawn, we can inject water back into the structure to maintain the pressure, by drilling more wells outside the limits of the oil accumulation. An oil field may extend over an area the size of a town, with a network of pipelines for gathering the oil and maintaining pressures downhole. If
The oil field were offshore, the whole installation, complete with treating facilities and pumps, would have to be concentrated into a very small area. To be economic offshore, drilling and producing facilities need to be located at a central point from a permanent platform. The oil reservoir is then developed to the same pattern as on land by using the technique of deviation drilling.
Oil reserves are much harder to find nowadays, but when they are, it's most often in locations that are very difficult to develop. But wherever they exist, and however complex the development becomes, it is our job to reach them using every human and environmental safeguard possible, then to recover as much as we can for as long as we can.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
PRESENTER: Geologists have known for years that substantial deposits of oil and natural gas are trapped in deep shale formations. These shale reservoirs were created tens of millions of years ago. Around the world today, with modern horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing, the trapped oil and natural gas in these shale reservoirs is being safely and efficiently produced, gathered, and distributed to customers.
Let's look at the drilling and completion process of a typical oil and natural gas well. Shale reservoirs are usually 1 mile or more below the surface-- well below any underground source of drinking water, which is typically no more than 300 to 1,000 feet below the surface. Additionally, steel pipes-- called casing-- cemented in place provide a multilayered barrier to protect freshwater aquifers.
During the past 60 years, the oil and gas industry has conducted fracture stimulations in over 1 million wells worldwide. The initial steps are the same as for any conventional well. A hole is drilled straight down using fresh water-based fluids, which cools the drill bit, carries the rock cuttings back to the surface, and stabilizes the wall of the wellbore.
Once the hole extends below the deepest freshwater aquifer, the drill pipe is removed and replaced with steel pipe, called surface casing. Next, cement is pumped down the casing. When it reaches the bottom, it is pumped down and then back up between the casing and the borehole wall, creating an impermeable, additional protective barrier between the wellbore and any fresh water sources.
In some cases, depending on the geology of the area and the depth of the well, additional casing sections may be run, and like surface casing, are then cemented in place to ensure no movement of fluids or gas between those layers and the groundwater sources. What makes drilling for hydrocarbons in a shale formation unique is the necessity to drill horizontally.
Vertical drilling continues to a depth called the kick-off point. This is where the wellbore begins curving to become horizontal. One of the advantages of horizontal drilling is that it's possible to drill several wells from only one drilling pad, minimizing the impact to the surface environment.
When the targeted distance is reached, the drill pipe is removed, and additional steel casing is inserted through the full length of the wellbore. Once again, the casing is cemented in place. For some horizontal developments, new technology in the form of sliding sleeves and mechanical isolation devices replace cement in the creation of isolations along the wellbore.
Once the drilling is finished and the final casing has been installed, the drilling rig is removed, and preparations are made for the next steps-- well completion. The first step in completing a well is the creation of a connection between the final casing and the reservoir rock. This consists of lowering a specialized tool called a perforating gun, which is equipped with shaped explosive charges, down to the rock layer containing oil or natural gas.
This perforating gun is then fired, which creates holes through the casing, cement, and into the target rock. These perforating holes connect the reservoir and the wellbore. Since these perforations are only a few inches long and are performed more than a mile underground, the entire process is imperceptible on the surface.
The perforation gun is then removed in preparation for the next step-- hydraulic fracturing. The process consists of pumping a mixture of mostly water and sand-- plus a few chemicals-- under controlled conditions, into deep underground reservoir formations. The chemicals are generally for lubrication, to keep bacteria from forming, and to help carry the sand. These chemicals typically range in concentrations from 0.1% to 0.5% by volume, and help to improve the performance of the stimulation.
This stimulation fluid is sent to trucks that pump the fluid into the wellbore and out through the perforations that were noted earlier. This process creates fractures in the oil and gas reservoir rock. The sand and the frack fluid remains in these fractures in the rock and keeps them open when the pump pressure is relieved. This allows the previously-trapped oil or natural gas to flow to the wellbore more easily.
This initial stimulation segment is then isolated with a specially-designed plug, and the perforating guns are used to perforate the next stage. This stage is then hydraulically fractured in the same manner. This process is repeated along the entire horizontal section of the well, which can extend several miles.
Once the stimulation is complete, the isolation plugs are drilled out, and production begins. Initially water, and then natural gas or oil, flows into the horizontal casing and up the wellbore. In the course of initial production of the well, approximately 15% to 50% of the fracturing fluid is recovered. This fluid is either recycled to be used on other fracturing operations, or safely disposed of according to government regulations.
The whole process of developing a well typically takes from three to five months-- a few weeks to prepare the site, four to six weeks to drill the well, and then one to three months of completion activities, which includes one to seven days of stimulation. But this three to five month investment can result in a well that will produce oil or natural gas for 20 to 40 years or more.
When all of the oil or natural gas that can be recovered economically from a reservoir has been produced, work begins to return the land to the way it was before the drilling operations commenced. Wells will be filled with cement, and pipes cut off 3 to 6 feet below ground level. All surface equipment will be removed, and all pads will be filled in with dirt or replanted. The land can then be used again by the landowner for other activities, and there will be virtually no visual signs that a well was once there.
Today, hydraulic fracturing has become an increasingly important technique for producing oil and natural gas in places where the hydrocarbons were previously inaccessible. Technology will continue to be developed to improve the safe and economic development of oil and gas resources.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
ADDISON ANDERSON: Deep underground lie stores of once-inaccessible natural gas. This gas was likely formed over millions of years, as layers of decaying organisms were exposed to intense heat and pressure under the earth's crust. There's a technology called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, that can extract this natural gas, potentially powering us for decades to come.
So how does fracking work? And why is it a source of such heated controversy? A fracking site can be anywhere with natural gas, from a remote desert to several hundred feet from your backyard.
It starts out with a long vertical hole, known as a wellbore, drilled down through layers of sediment. When the well reaches 2,500 to 3,000 meters, it's at its kickoff point, where it can begin the process of horizontal drilling. It turns 90 degrees and extends horizontally for about 1.5 kilometers through a compressed, black layer called the shale rock formation. A specialized perforating gun is then lowered and fired, creating a series of small inch-long holes that burst through the well's casing into the rock layer.
About three to four months after the initial drilling, the well is ready for fracking to begin. Fracking fluid is pumped down into the well at a pressure so high it cracks the shale rock, creating fractures through which the trapped gas and oil can escape. The fluid itself is more than 90% water. The rest is made up of concentrated chemical additives.
These vary depending on the specific characteristics of the fracking site, but usually fall into three categories-- acids for clearing debris and dissolving minerals, friction-reducing compounds to create a slippery form of water known as slickwater, and disinfectant to prevent bacteria growth. Sand or clay is also mixed into the water to prop open the fissures so the gas and oil can keep leaking out even after the pressure is released.
It's estimated that all of fracking's intense pumping and flushing uses an average of three to six million gallons of water per well. That's actually not a lot compared to agriculture, power plants, or even golf-course maintenance. But it can have a notable impact on local water supply.
And disposing of used fracking water is also an issue. Along with the trapped gas that's pumped up to the surface, millions of gallons of flowback liquid come gushing up. This liquid containing contaminants like radioactive material, salts, heavy metals, and hydrocarbons needs to be stored and disposed of. That's usually done in pits on site in deep wells or off-site at water treatment facilities.
Another option is to recycle the flowback liquid. But the recycling process can actually increase levels of contamination since the water is more toxic with each use. Wells are typically encased in steel and cement to prevent contaminants from leaking into groundwater. But any negligence or fracking-related accidents can have devastating effects. Fracturing directly into underground water, hazardous underground seepage and leakage, and inadequate treatment and disposal of highly toxic wastewater can potentially contaminate drinking water around a fracking site.
There's also concern about the threat of earthquakes and damage to infrastructure from pressure and wastewater injection. Links between fracking and increased seismic activity leave unresolved questions about long-term pressure imbalances that might be happening beneath our feet.
Fracking's biggest controversy, though, is happening above the ground. The general consensus is that burning natural gas is better for the environment than burning coal since the gas collected from fracking emits only half the carbon dioxide as coal per unit of energy. The pollution caused by the fracking itself, though, isn't negligible. Methane that leaks out during the drilling and pumping process is many times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. Some scientists argue that methane eventually dissipates, so has a relatively low long-term impact.
But a greater question hangs in the air. Does fracking take time, money, and research away from the development of cleaner, renewable energy sources? Natural gas is nonrenewable. And the short-run economic interests supporting fracking may fall short in the face of global climate change. Experts are still examining fracking's overarching effects.
Although modern fracking has been around since the 1940s, it's boomed in the last few decades. As other sources of natural gas decrease, the costs of nonrenewable energies rise. And cutting-edge technologies make it so accessible. But many countries and regions have already banned fracking in response to environmental concerns. It's undeniable that fracking has reshaped the energy landscape around the world. But for what long term benefit and at what cost?
Economists have long recognized that we are truly a global society and all of our economies are intrinsically tied together. Growth or recession in one region of the world could have a ripple effect on other regions. China and India were emerging as large-scale industrial countries with vast exports of manufactured goods. Both were consuming new, higher levels of energy (Figure 4), and most specifically, crude oil. News of increasing crude imports by both countries sparked buying of the financial commodity contracts.
The so-called “speculators” were blamed for a lot of the price increase that year, but there was a whole new set of players who greatly influenced the market. Investment funds and private investors, both domestic and international, saw the crude market as a “safe harbor” from the ups-and-downs of the stock market and the US dollar. When the stock market fell, they bought crude oil contracts. And when it rose, they sold those same contracts. The dollar is a little more complicated. When the value of the US dollar falls relative to foreign currency, overseas investors have more “buying power,” that is, they can buy more crude with their currency than those holding US dollars. So, to some extent, it is true that “traders” had a major influence on oil prices that year. But the definition of “trader” had changed from the stereotypical “day trader,” who wreaks havoc on markets, to sophisticated investors and real demand from emerging nations.
Today, the economic health of various countries still impacts the volatility in oil prices, and the US dollar and crude prices have a very high but inverse correlation. And geopolitical conflicts involving oil-producing countries and regions always cause concern over potential supply disruptions.
US oil production has been risen over the past years (before the unprecedented situation in 2020) and stayed at about 12.8 million barrels per day in December 2019. This represents an increase from 2008 to early 2015, decrease in production from around mid 2015 to September 2016, and then increase in production again from then to late 2019. Production from 2014 to 2018 has been over 8.0 million Bbl/d. In 2016, U.S. crude oil production represents only about 55% of consumption, with the remainder coming in the form of imports. However, as Figure 3 shows, imports continue to decline as domestic crude supplies increase.
The rise in domestic oil production is mostly attributed to the new, “unconventional”, sources found in shale formations and high levels of oil price make the production from these sources more profitable. Advances in seismology (“3-D”), directional drilling (“horizontal”) and, fracturing methods (“fracking”), have made this once inaccessible resource commonplace today. Contrary to some beliefs, the number one source of imported crude oil in the US is not the Middle East, but Canada. Oil from tar sands in their Western Provinces is shipped via pipeline into the US.
Figure 2 is extracted from the EIA report on the U.S. crude oil production [25]. Figure 2 shows the upward trend in oil production over the (6) years before 2015, downward trend from mid 2015 to late 2016, and upward production trend again from late 2016 to late 2019 (before the unprecedented global pandemic in 2020). (Based on the latest completed study by the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy.) This link from the EIA includes the historical data from the 20th century [26].
Figure 3 shows the downward trend in oil imports for the same time period (2000 - 2020).
Crude oil is produced in 32 states in the United States and as of 2021 about 71% of domestic crude oil production comes from the following five states [28]:
Crude oil is produced in about 100 countries around the world. In 2021 about half of the world oil production comes from the following five countries [28]:
Here are the top five oil consumer countries in the world in 2021 [29]:
According to EIA [30]:
" In 2022, the United States imported about 8.32 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 80 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.28 million b/d accounted for about 75% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports, and non-crude oil petroleum accounted for about 25% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports. ”
Here are the top five countries that the US is importing oil from with their share in 2022 [31]:
Figure 4 displays the China and India oil production and consumption since the 90s. As you can see in this graph, oil consumption by these two countries has increased substantially during the past two decades, while their oil production hasn't changed significantly. This gap has created a large oil demand from these two counties in the global oil market.
Many, many factors can influence the price of crude oil either directly or indirectly. Some of the major factors influencing US crude oil prices are:
The following videos go into greater detail about the factors which can influence crude oil prices. Please note that some of the statistics might be a bit out of date, but please do not worry about that. These are just examples and are meant to teach you about how the various factors influence the market. You will not be responsible for the example details.
(The lecture notes can be found in the Lesson 2 module in Canvas (Lesson 2: Supply/Demand Fundamentals for Natural Gas & Crude Oil.)
(9:04 minutes)
Farid Tayari: In this video and following videos, I'm going to explain the factors that are influencing the crude oil price. So there are many factors that can have an impact on crude oil price that we can name some of them as weather, US economy, international economy, US dollar exchange rate comparing to other foreign currencies, geopolitical events, supply and demand statistics, and crude oil and petroleum distillates inventory.
First, US weather-- heating oil is a refined distillate of crude oil. And it is being used by 5.7 million-- around 6 million households-- in the United States for space heating and warming of the water. Around 80% of those six million households are living in Northeast part of the country.
So if there is a cold winter, if there is a cold wave hitting this part of the country, we're expecting to have higher demand for heating oil. And it could be a good signal for price of oil being potentially increased.
I put a link here and this is slide to EIA website-- Energy Information Administration-- that includes the heating oil prices. So in addition to looking for data such as temperature or having a potential prediction of wind chill, there's also another indicator called HDD or Heating Degree Days. It's a good sign for energy demand.
So HDD represents the amount of energy being used to heat the space inside the building to reach 65 degrees, Fahrenheit. The lower outside temperature, it means that more energy has to be used for space heating. So historical and forecasted issues can be found at this link. It takes you to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It can be a good metric for expected demand of heating oil and eventually, crude oil.
So one thing that we have to note that HDD is always positive-- there's no negative-- in case for the summer, the outside temperature is higher than 65, and then energy has to be used to cool down the space to the 65. We use this metric called CDD, or Cooling Degree Days. It's a measure for the amount of energy that needs to be used to cool down the building.
The other weather event that could potentially affect the crude oil price is a hurricane. According to EIA-- Energy Information Administration-- around 23% of the offshore oil production and 45% of the US oil refining capacity is around the Gulf of Mexico. And this is the section that in case of hurricane, that could potentially be affected and the supply can be interrupted.
So around 24 hours before the hurricane, the site-- which is a production site or drilling site-- has to be evacuated. And after the hurricane, it takes around at least 72 hours to reman the facility and start production.
In case of hurricane, there are two possible things that can happen, the interruption in the production because the site has to be evacuated. Or if the hurricane is severe, it can also damage the facility. For example, two cases-- Hurricane Katrina in 2005, 12 rigs and 30 platforms were damaged. And 18 of those platforms were completely destroyed.
Hurricane Ivan in 2004 damaged seven rigs and destroyed two rigs, and seven platforms destroyed. And it had consequences-- flooding and so on and so forth. And this can cause the supply interruption or the prediction of supply interruption. So when there is an interruption in supply, price can potentially increase.
I put a link here and it takes you to National Hurricane Center. It is a good resource for getting information of hurricane events. The official hurricane season begins on June 1st and it goes to November 3rd with a peak around mid-September. During this time, Weather Channel provides information through tropical update report.
The other factor that fixed the price of oil is the economy. Oil is a global commodity and the United States economy and other major countries in terms of economy. They can potentially influence the price of crude oil.
In this video, I'm going to explain the effect of US economy and crude oil. And in the following videos, I'm going to focus on international aspects of the economy and factors that are affecting crude oil price.
So energy runs the economy. And every aspect of economy can potentially influence the crude oil price. If economy is doing good, if economy is growing, it means there will be higher demand in future. Demand will be increasing. Strength and weakness of domestic economy directly impacts their prices, and also the perception of prices change and the prediction of the demand and eventually, the price predictions and the reaction of the traders to the price.
One of the most obvious and most frequently reported indications of economic health is stock market. Dow- Jones Industrial Index, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are daily reports that indicate the performance of the stock market. If these metrics are showing a good performance for the stock market, it means that economy is growing. And it could go up.
There are also weekly, monthly, quarterly economic reports that can have immediate impact on the price perception. Unemployment rate and reports being published by US Department of Labor-- this report is published every Friday. Institute of Supply Management Index report published monthly. Inflation rate, which is calculated from the CPI, Consumer Price Index, is being reported by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's a monthly report. GDP, US Gross Domestic Product, which also being published by Bureau of Economic Analysis and it's being published quarterly.
Also, US Department of Commerce's Economic and Statistics Administration has number of economic indicators that include data from US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. These economic metrics are including construction spending, housing starts, housing sales, US international trade, monthly wholesale trade, manufacturing and trade, sales for retail and food services, personal income, and personal spending.
Also, quarterly earning reports from US companies-- these are the report metrics in economic parameters that can help us predict the future demand.
The next video-- so I'm going to explain the other factors that can influence crude oil price.
(9:29 minutes)
Farid Tayari: Following the previous videos, in this video, I'm going to continue explaining the factors that are affecting crude oil price. In this video, I will start with international economy. As we learned previously, crude oil is an international commodity. It's a global commodity. It's being traded everywhere in the world. Every part of the world economy can have impact on the crude oil price. Some countries that are contributing to biggest portion of crude oil consumption, their economy can potentially have a big impact on crude oil price.
So when trading starts early in the morning on the exchange in New York, Asian market is already closed and European market is at midday. So the behavior of the market, the signs of how market will behave, they are already known.
And probably the most watched nation these days outside of the US is China. China is contributing to around 15% of the world GDP. And China is, after the United States, the second-largest consumer of crude oil.
After China, Japan used to be the third-largest consumer of crude oil. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan's imports of fossil fuel increased. But at the moment, India is in the third place, taking Japan's place in oil consumption of the world. Also, the European Union and Europe region is consuming around 22% of world crude oil, and this data is from 2013.
So economic growth in these regions that are large consumers of crude oil can influence the crude oil. If the economy is doing good, if growth rate-- economic growth rate-- is high, it gives the signal that the demand in the future-- there will be high demand for crude oil in the future. And if the economy is slowing down, it means that the expected demand will not be as high as before. The increasing demand will be not as high as before, and it is going to potentially affect the price of crude oil.
The other factor that can potentially influence the crude oil price is the United States exchange rate. As you know, crude oil is globally being traded in US dollar. So the fluctuation of exchange rate, US dollar compared to other currencies, can potentially affect the crude oil price.
Why? Because there are many traders outside of the United States, and they are trading the crude oil which is being traded in US dollar. So if the dollar value decreases-- if US dollar loses its value-- it means that those traders living outside of the United States will have higher buying power. So they can buy more crude oil futures contracts. It means that there will be higher demand from outside of the United States. It will increase the demand of crude oil and can potentially increase the price.
So usually, there is a strong correlation, negative correlation, between the United States US dollar value and crude oil price. During the periods of a strong US dollar, foreign traders, investors try to sell their future contracts. And when the US dollar loses its value, they tend to buy more contracts.
The other factor that can impact the price of oil is geopolitical events, especially in the regions that are big producers of oil. Any conflict or potential conflict can impact the prices. Any news that can give the sense of potential interruption in supply can increase the price.
Please note that it doesn't necessarily need something to happen that interrupts the supply. Traders are also humans. They behave emotionally. They can react to the news in an emotional way. So if news says some potential conflicts in the region where large producing countries are located, it can potentially affect the perception of the supply in the future. It could potentially interrupt the supply, or it can influence the perception of the supply in the future and can have a significant impact on the crude oil prices.
For example, in mid-June 2014, WTI-- West Texas Intermediate-- crude oil price was about $107 per barrel. And at the end of that year, it went down to around $54 per barrel. We can explain this price behavior into two major factors that influence the price. First, the increased supplies of oil in the United States, mostly coming from unconventional reservoirs, shale and tight sands, because the price of oil was high. And at this price, at around $100, it's totally economically feasible to produce oil from costly unconventional reserves.
Around this time, Saudi Arabia-- that is, one of the largest producers and exporters of crude oil-- tried to maintain the market share by flooding the market with cheap oil, but this strategy caused excess supply and price to drop substantially. Low price of oil can have a large impact on oil-producing countries that are highly dependent on the revenue from oil. Also, in the United States, the companies who are working on the exploration and production section of oil, they will have to cut back on exploration and drilling activities, too, because they lose their revenue. And potentially, if the price is too low, they can potentially-- the small companies-- they can go bankrupt.
The other major player in the oil global market is OPEC, or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC was formed in 1960 by the first five members, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. And right now, at the moment, 2017, it has 14 members. OPEC produced around 43% of the world's total crude oil in 2015, and OPEC members control about 73% of the world's total crude oil reserves. So every decision that OPEC members-- every agreement or even the meetings that don't come to an agreement can potentially affect the price of crude oil.
For example, if OPEC members come to an agreement and they cut back to production, it can cause the supply-- the world's total supply-- to decrease and eventually cause price increase. And if in their meetings, let's say there's time and there's a conflict-- politics is always involved in the decisions. If there is a period that prices are going down and they cannot come into an agreement for cutting back the production, then it can potentially affect market prices and potentially cannot stop the price decrease.
(3:45 minutes)
Farid Tayari: Following the previous videos, in this video, I'm going to explain the factors that can influence the crude oil price.
The last factor that I'm going to explain is supply and demand statistics. Any informational report that can give some information about the production or consumption of crude oil and, also, its distillates products can cause an impact, can cause a price change.
There are a variety of reports being published by governmental entities, both US and international, as well as industry associations. And these reports are good sources to predict the behavior of the crude oil price.
EIA, Energy Information Administration, from the US Department of Energy, issues a report on the status of country's inventory of crude oil, and its various distillates. This report is being published every Wednesday at 9:30 AM, and it has several pieces of key supply and demand statistics.
I'm going to explain some of the items that are included in this report. First, a refinery utilization, the percentage of total US refinery capacity that is running indicates both demand for crude oil as well as production of gasoline.
And, two, is an import report, both raw crude oil and refined products, such as gasoline. They are imported and volumes are compared to last year, which could be indicators of improving or worsening the balance.
The other part of the report includes commercial crude oil inventory. The change in inventory from one week to the next week has a profound impact on crude oil prices from a trading standpoint.
Analysts provide forecasts for the change in inventory ahead of the actual report. And financial and energy commodity traders react to the difference between the forecasted and actual report.
The other piece of information that is included in the report is gasoline inventories. Total gasoline products, as well as, breakdown between finished gasoline and blending products, gives a picture of supply and demand for gasoline. A decrease in total products could mean more demand for refinery feedstocks. Surplus could mean just opposite.
If there is an inventory, it means that there will be more supply to the market, and price won't go up, then they potentially could go down.
Information about distillate fuel is also included in EIA Inventory report which, in this category, is mainly about heating oil. And as I explained earlier, the cold winter-- the cold weather, or low temperature, means higher demand for heating oil.
And if there is low inventory, if there is low storage, it can be translated to low shortage of supply and higher prices in the cold days.
So as I explained in previous video, value of the US dollar or US dollar exchange rate versus foreign currencies is one of the factors that affects the crude oil price. As we know, crude oil is a global commodity that is traded globally, but in US dollars. So any fluctuations in the exchange rate between US dollar and foreign currencies can affect the crude oil price.
I'm going to explain that in a very simple example. Let's assume there are two traders who trade crude oil futures contracts. So one is Trader A is in the United States and Trader B is in Europe. Trader A has $1,000, and Trader B has 1,000 euros.
So first, let's assume that the exchange rate between US dollar and euro is 1-to-1 so meaning that $1 is equivalent to 1 euro. And let's assume that crude oil price is $50 per barrel. OK, let's see what happens for Trader A.
Trader A has $1,000 and can buy 20 barrels of crude oil or can buy futures contract equivalent to 20 barrels of crude oil. So $1,000 divided by 50 leaves 20 barrels of crude oil.
Let's see what happens to the trader in Europe. So Trader B has 1,000 euros. The first thing that Trader B has to do is going to the exchange and convert the 1,000 euros to the equivalent dollar amount, which is $1,000. Then with that amount, Trader B can buy crude oil. So Trader B can also buy 20 barrels of crude oil.
So the total demand will be 20 from inside the United States and 20 internationally, assuming there only two traders. So there will be 40 barrels of crude oil demand, total demand.
OK, now let's assume the case that US dollar loses its value. So again, same traders, two traders, Trader A is located in the United States and has $1,000. Trader B is in Europe and has 1,000 euros.
And now let's assume US dollar has lost its value. Now $1 is equivalent to 0.8 euros. Or with 1 euro, you can get $1.25. And let's assume the crude oil price has stayed the same, $50 per barrel. And let's see what happens.
OK, trader A still has $1,000. Crude oil price is still $50 per barrel. So Trader A inside the United States can still get that 20 barrels of crude oil.
And let's see what happens to Trader B. Trader B has 1,000 euros. Trader B has to go and exchange that 1,000 euros to equivalent dollar. And as we can see, because dollar has lost its value, that 1,000 euros will be converted to $1,250 because, with 1 euros, Trader B will get $1.25. So Trader B has $1,250, which can buy five more contracts. So Trader B would end up buying 25 barrels of crude oil or futures contract equivalent to 25 barrels of crude oil.
So 20 barrels demand from Trader A inside the United States and 25 barrels of crude oil demand from Trader B outside the United States-- so total demand will be 20 plus 25, 45 barrels. So we can see the demand increase from 40 barrels to 45 barrels when the dollar has lost its value. So it means that demand has increased. So demand curve shifted to the left-hand side, which changes the market equilibrium price for crude oil. And it potentially increases the crude oil price.
Extracted natural gas [34] is mainly composed of methane, with small amounts of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) and nonhydrocarbon gases. After natural gas is produced, it has to be processed and impurities have to be removed to meet the pipeline standards and become marketable. The infrastructure of natural gas delivery (before distribution) can be divided into three main categories [15]:
In 2021, U.S. dry natural gas production was about 34.5 trillion cubic feet and about 13% more than total U.S. gas consumption. This year, five states produced about 69% of total U.S. dry natural gas:
Natural gas is used in more than 50% of US homes for space heating and hot water. In addition, it is the largest source of energy for electrical generation at the moment (2021), see Figure 5. Natural Gas is also widely used in industrial, commercial, and industrial sectors. Figure 6 illustrates the breakdown of natural gas consumption by sector.
Energy source | Share of total |
---|---|
Natural gas | 38% |
Coal | 23% |
Nuclear | 20% |
Renewables (total) | 17% |
Hydropower | 6.6% |
Wind | 7.3% |
Solar | 1.8% |
Biomass | 1.4% |
Geothermal | 0.4% |
Energy Sector | Share of total |
---|---|
Electric Power | 36% |
Industrial | 33% |
Residential | 16% |
Commercial | 11% |
Transportation | 3% |
Domestic production in the US (see Figure 7) has grown dramatically in recent years due to the same advanced technologies that have allowed crude oil production to increase: “3-D” seismology, horizontal drilling and new “fracking” methods. All contribute to successful recoveries from hard formations such as the new “shales.”
Decade | Natural Gas Production |
---|---|
1900 | 1028,000 |
1910 | 509,000 |
1920 | 812,000 |
1930 | 1,978,911 |
1940 | 2,733,819 |
1950 | 6,282,060 |
1960 | 12,771,038 |
1970 | 21,920,642 |
1980 | 20,179,724 |
1990 | 18,593,792 |
2000 | 20,197,511 |
2010 | 22,381,873 |
2019 | 36,515,188 |
Figure 8 illustrates the growth in the production of the currently active shale basins in the US. As you can see in the graph, natural gas production from Marcellus Shale formations, located mostly in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and New York, has been increasing during the past decade and has the largest portion of gas production among the shale formations.
Due to the increasing demand since the late 1980s, the US also imports natural gas (see Figure 9). Canada represents the largest source (more than 97%) of imported natural gas, with Mexico contributing a minor amount. The export of natural gas had been very limited through pipeline export points into Canada and Mexico. However, the export changed dramatically since 2016 due to the skyrocketing LNG export. In 2017, the U.S. became a net exporter of natural gas and in 2021, the LNG export exceeded pipeline export for the first time since 1990.
Figure 11 displays the U.S. average annual natural gas wellhead, city gate, and residential prices (1995-2019). Please note the increasing trend before 2008 and decreasing prices after. In order to fully understand these trends, have a look at Figure 7 (U.S. annual natural gas marketed production [36]) and U.S. GDP [39]from 1995-2019.
In contrast to crude oil, natural gas was almost strictly a domestic North American commodity* whose price is more influenced by weather and the health of the US economy. It is gradually becoming a global commodity in recent years due to increasing LNG export capacity [40]. Other factors, such as the level of US natural gas inventory, impact prices on a weekly basis. While US economic indicators, such as the stock market, employment figures, housing and, manufacturing indexes, are deemed to be indicative of demand for natural gas, global economies and the US dollar do not have much effect on pricing in this country.
Among the major factors influencing US natural gas prices are:
The following video goes into greater detail about the factors which can influence natural gas prices. (The lecture notes can be found in module 2 in Canvas. (Lesson 2: Supply/Demand Fundamentals for Natural Gas & Crude Oil.)
As we explore pricing for crude oil and natural gas in a later lesson, we will consider the major influential factors for each and define their individual impact. We will also have a weekly activity about the market prices for crude oil and natural gas and the factors we believe affect them.
Note: When commodity price is expected to go up, the market is called bullish [42]. In this case, an investor will invest in the commodity. On the other hand, if prices are expected to go down, then it’s called a bearish [42] market. In this situation, an investor is expecting the commodity to lose its value. Consequently, the investor sells the financial commodity.
PRESENTER: In this video, I'm going to explain the factors that can influence natural gas price. In contrast to crude oil, natural gas is almost not a global commodity, yet. It can be construed as a domestic commodity in the United States. So things that are happening outside the United States, they don't have a major impact on the natural gas prices.
So we can focus on the factors that are happening in the United States. And two of these major factors are the US economy and weather events. Other factors, such as the level of US natural gas inventory, can also impact the natural gas prices on a weekly basis.
The higher natural gas inventory means high supply or having enough supply for fluctuations in demand. So if there is a high level of inventory, it can translate to not having, not experiencing, not expecting the higher price of natural gas.
US economic indicators such as the stock market, employment, figures housing and manufacturing, they impact the natural gas prices. On the other side, global economy, US dollar exchange rate would not have an impact on the pricing of natural gas.
The first factor is the weather. More than 50% of American homes are heated by natural gas. So any cold or extreme weather could potentially increase the price if there is a shortage of supply. If there is an unexpected demand, it could shift the price to higher prices.
Also, hot weather could cause the price increase, because people will use air conditioning to lower the inside temperature for space cooling. And so increase in demand for electricity could potentially increase the natural gas prices.
The other weather event is hurricanes, same as crude oil, that we explain how a hurricane in the region of Gulf of Mexico can disrupt the supply and damage platforms. Evacuation and recovery after a hurricane can potentially interrupt the supply.
US economy-- similar to crude oil, fluctuations in economy translate into an increase or decrease in energy consumption. North American natural gas is not a truly global commodity, so the global economy does not have an impact on the price of natural gas.
The other factor that could potentially affect the natural gas price is the reports about production levels versus demand indicators. Any statistics, any information about supply or demand of natural gas can potentially affect the price.
EIA, Energy Information Administration from Department of Energy, publishes a weekly report every Thursday at 9:30 AM. This report is about natural gas storage. And it has some pieces of information that I'm going to explain them in the following slides.
So EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report includes pieces of information on natural gas storage. The first piece of information is regional breakdown-- the activity for the EIA-defined regions, which includes the major consuming regions, both east and west, and producing region. The producing region is further broken down into the salt and non-salt storage facilities, with the majority of the salt caverns existing along the Gulf Coast.
Injections, or gas added, and withdrawals, gas removed, by region can be telling about the weather conditions in each area. A good balance is when the consuming regions are withdrawing the same amount of gas as producing region is injecting gas.
The other very important piece of information included in EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is the total gas in storage. It is the change in historic levels from one week to the next week. It is the first thing that traders and other parties involved in the natural gas market would look to for guidance.
Excess storage, a high level of storage or injection in the report, can be translated to a bearish price signal. That is, the production exceeds demand for the prior week.
The converse is also true for the removal of gas from the storage, or withdrawal in the report, that can indicate demand exceeded the production for the prior week. Prior to the release of the report, analysts have compiled forecasts in the variance of the actual volume to these predictions.
The other piece of information that can be found in EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is a comparison to a year ago. This data includes the information-- the current inventory level compared to the same period the previous year. In order to truly interpret this comparison correctly, we must consider the weather in this year with the last year, if there was or there is harsh winter we are experiencing or we were experiencing cold days.
The last piece of information in EIA Weekly Natural Gas Report that is important for us is a comparison to the five-year average that can be found in the report.
The other factor that can influence natural gas price is electrical generation fuel switching. A large amount of country's power plants were fueled by coal. And they can switch. They can switch their fuel to natural gas if natural gas prices are competitive or more restrictions are being enforced for the emissions. But this effect is a more long-term effect.
Also, the Nuclear Regulatory Agency publishes a daily status report for all nuclear power plants in the United States. When plants are down, more electricity is generated by natural gas.
Now that we have examined production and consumption in the United States as well as the energy “mix,” we will focus on the fuel sources that comprise over 57% of the energy used in this country. Crude oil, with refined products, and natural gas and related natural gas liquids (NGLs) make-up this large sector.
You have reached the end of Lesson 2. Double-check the list of requirements on the first page of this lesson to make sure you have completed all of the activities listed there before beginning the next lesson.
Links
[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=M
[2] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=nonrenewable_home
[3] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home#tab2
[4] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home#tab1
[5] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_refining#tab1
[6] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-the-refining-process.php
[7] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_where
[8] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from-in-depth.php
[9] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_imports
[10] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_offshore
[11] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/offshore-oil-and-gas-in-depth.php
[12] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use
[13] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_prices
[14] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_environment
[15] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_delivery
[16] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_where
[17] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_imports
[18] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_use
[19] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_prices
[20] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_factors_affecting_prices
[21] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_environment
[22] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home
[23] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_home
[24] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=nuclear_home
[25] https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/
[26] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
[27] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimus1&f=a
[28] http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_where
[29] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6
[30] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6
[31] http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6
[32] https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN
[33] https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/IND
[34] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_home
[35] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
[36] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2A.htm
[37] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
[38] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/importsexports/annual/
[39] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
[40] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53719
[41] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_MOVE_EXPC_S1_A.htm
[42] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIAyCgtEWws