Vulnerability
Content Page from Previous Semesters - For Reference Only
Now that we have explored some of the basics of climate change and the main political instruments to deal with it, let’s move on examine impacts, and how unequally they are distributed, and response options that include both mitigation and adaptation.
Let’s start with a 10 minute video produced by several Penn State scientists:
UNFCCC: The world’s climate is changing and will continue to change at rates unprecedented in recent human history. The impacts and risks associated with these changes are real and are already happening in many systems and sectors essential for human livelihood, including water resources, food security, coastal zones and health.
Developing countries, especially those that are least developed, and the poorest communities, are the most vulnerable. In these vulnerable countries and communities, the impacts of climate change pose a direct threat to people’s very survival. However, the devastating effects of extreme events, temperature increases and sea level rise have consequences for all of us, particularly the poor, and will only worsen in the future.
Impacts highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) include:
- By 2020, in some African countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture (the dominant method) could be reduced by up to 50%;
- Worldwide, approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C;
- Widespread melting of glaciers and snow cover will reduce melt water from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one billion people currently live;
- In 2008 alone, more than 20 million people were displaced by sudden climate-related disasters. An estimated 200 million people could be displaced as a result of climate impacts by 2050;
- Climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths. Adverse health impacts will be greatest in low-income countries, including from heat stroke, malaria, dengue and diarrhoea.
So, what does vulnerability mean?
Vulnerability, as defined by the UNFCC, refers to the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
Let’s take a look at one of many vulnerability maps. The darker the orange and red, the higher the vulnerability to negative impacts of climate change. You may notice that this map is in stark contrast to the 200 emission map you looked at earlier. Correct, most of the countries that have contributed least to the rising emissions are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate changes caused by other countries. Why is this? Most countries in Africa, for instance, face tremendous development challenges, including chronic poverty, food and livelihood insecurity, and socio-economic and political inequality. Several also suffer from conflicts and wars. Moreover, the same countries are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism. Finally, they also tend to the countries where adaptive capacity to climatic changes is lowest.
In the climate change debates and negotiations, also reflected in the IPCC reports, emphasis has shifted from mitigation to adaptation.
Mitigation is any human intervention that reduces the sources or enhances the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes or electricity generation, switching to solar energy or wind power, improving the insulation of buildings, and expanding forests and other "sinks" to remove greater amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (UNFCCC glossary).
Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (UNFCCC glossary).
Adaptive capacity is understood as the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to the effects or impacts of a stressor (climate change).
Consider this...
Below are two graphics that both show, in slightly different ways, the difference between exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Both involve dimensions of scale. Can you think of a good example that illustrates differences in vulnerability between a cotton farmer in Arizona and a cotton farmer in Burkina Faso? What determines their differential exposure and sensitivity to droughts? And what determines their differential adaptive capacity?
