Memory Aid

Actions That Help the Analyst Develop Hypotheses

Action 1: Brainstorming. Begin with a brainstorming session with your knowledge team to identify a set of alternative hypotheses. Focus on the hypotheses that are:

• logically consistent with the theories and data uncovered in your grounding;
• address the quality and relationships of spaces.

State the hypotheses stated in an "if ... then" format, for example:

• If the DC Shooter is a terrorist, then the geospatial pattern of events would be similar to other terrorist acts.
• If the DC Shooter is a serial killer, then the geospatial pattern of events would be similar to other serial killers.

Action 2: Review the hypotheses for testability, i.e., can evidence be could found to test the validity of the statement.

Action 3: Check the hypotheses for falsifiability, i.e., could evidence reveal that such an idea is not true.

Action 4: Combine redundant hypotheses.

Action 5:Consider the elimination of improbable and unproven hypotheses.